U.S. President Donald Trump has an uncanny ability to turn things to his advantage. First, it was his policy against outsourcing, or actions against illegal immigrants that brought him to the media limelight. Now, it is on an altogether different theme – bring the religious issue to the center stage with his unambiguous pro-Israeli stance that can lead the world to a conflagration where rest of the world may turn against US-Israeli alliance.

Some weeks have passed since Trump made a categorical declaration on Jerusalem which had its repercussions on India also with BJP leader Subramaniam Swamy came out supporting Trump’s decision. As days passed U.S. President began to impose sanctions against those countries who voted against his decision that includes India also.

Oh! There Will Not Be War

The secular polity may be wondering – will tension escalate, or things will die down on its own. Sensible people know well that a war in a nuclear age will be catastrophic and they believe wiser counsels will prevail. It is natural that people, in general, do not want a war and they will oppose the imposition of a war that will force them to sacrifice their comfortable lives. The prevailing scenario is not in favor of a war and it is at this stage many may question how things will go out of control and how that demands logical reasoning.

The Background of West Asia Tensions

Well! We have seen Palestinians started revolting against the unilateral announcement of the U.S. They have been living in Jerusalem which was a part of Palestine nation for centuries together. But the two world wars changed things for them with the first one gave Jews a chance to return to Palestine and the second one gave Jews land taken out from Palestinians to occupy. The Jewish land became Israel after Second World War, a favor they received from war winner Great Britain that captured Palestine from Turkey after the First World War.

During Second World War

In the Second World War, Hitler kept his death squads in Greece ready in the event of a Nazi victory in the North African theatre of the war. But Field Marshal Bernard Montgomery and Eisenhower thwarted the progress of Axis powers during the war and Palestine remained with the British.

After occupying the land bitter wars were fought against Israel where each time Israel emerging victorious occupying more land. Jerusalem was the capital of Israel during the heydays of the Judaic kingdom. This land became the part of Ottoman Turk in the 15th century and during the First World War, the British captured Palestine from Turkey which was an ally of Germany. From that time, things turned bad for Palestine.

Sensible observers may think, who is Trump make Jerusalem as the capital of Israel? Will such one-sided statement make things favorable when even UN supports living rights of Palestinians in Jerusalem? At this crucial stage where how things will shape after Trump declaration, we need to think about the future.

How Will Things Shape?

Wikipedia states Jerusalem 850,000 residents comprise 5,50,000 Jews and 300,000 Palestinians. According to conventional wisdom, things remain same irrespective of Trump’s declaration. But I think otherwise, Israelites will not keep quiet and will take advantage of the situation asserting their rights on religious belief – Jerusalem belongs to Jews. Now things are peaceful by and large. Still, we need to check what is unraveling in the coming months with Jews will start ousting Palestinians from Jerusalem. Once that happens, the world will convulse.

Think vertically; once the Palestinians are ousted what will happen. There will be a huge uproar in Arab nations to ally against the rogue state Israel. But even then, without the support of world powers, they will not be able to act decisively against Israel. Does that mean that they can turn a blind eye to Jewish oppression? If the leaders of Arab nations keep quiet what will happen? The answer is people will overthrow the government. This will make them act diplomatically through UN to work against Israel. Let us go to the next sequence of events.

It is true that Arab nations will not be successful against Israel. They need support from other superpowers that can challenge the U.S. Now the question is who can do the same, and will they come forward, and for what reasons.

Watch Putin, the Potential Fulcrum for Projected Anti-Israeli Alliance

Vladimir Putin is one of the powerful leaders of the world. It is a great track record that he broke the record of Joseph Stalin’s 30 years of undisputed power in the former the Soviet Union. Marshall Stalin could have ruled for some more years, had he not been killed by his own handpicked KGB chief Lavrenty Beria, who said to have poisoned Stalin to death. To remain in power for long one must take new challenges and emerge victorious for consolidation. Otherwise, people will long for a change of leadership or opt new directions. Simmering tension in West Asia will come in handy for Vladimir Putin to claim world dominion by gathering nation against Israel.

Opinion or cause is a powerful platform to lead. So far, the Russians have been subdued after the implosion of the Soviet Union and its resultant break up. After the exit of Soviet Union from a bipolar world, U.S. became the sole power because Russia had to settle its own problems that made the country to forego its counterweight status. But step by step the Russians have come back and looking to expand their horizons. Although it is not an economic superpower, Russia under Putin is a military superpower. And, it needs to go further to reclaim world dominion.

The best way for the Russians to reclaim its lost glory is by unifying the world against the U.S. and its spoiled brat Israel, and I analyze, they will do it. Now, the question is other than Arab Israel sensitivity on religious sentiments what are the other factors that can unite the world against Israel.

Economic Compulsions

The great recession after 2008 is posing threat to world capitalism. The whole world is facing layoffs, retrenching, and cost-cutting leading to rising of leftist movements that can shake governments. As the society is knowledge-based and the citizens are well informed, people cannot be misled by ‘some distractions’ for long. The only way is to divert them to a common cause that will act as a problem solver also. And one way to solve economic problem is to restrict the U.S. from dominating the economic scene as their economic decisions are shaking middle class.

If so, what will happen? A united front comprising Russia and European nations excluding England can be the best bet to counter technologies posing threat to traditional jobs. Businesses get shaken by new technologies promoted by Google. A combination of AI, automation, and digital technologies result in massive layoffs promoting unrest. To keep people from revolting, it makes sense to isolate the U.S. from economic and technology spheres. Molding of opinion on U.S. economic dominance, protectionism will have many takers in European and Asian thinkers. The middle-class of these countries will favor a clear stance against the U.S.

Political Realities

For African countries, an alliance with Russia will give more economic freedom than being an ally of the U.S. For a country like China that is on a mission to isolate India, an alliance with Russia will be mutually beneficial to combat combined threats from U.S., India, and Japan.

We have seen how India voted against U.S. decision to make Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. If India supports Israel as Subramanyam Swamy says, the nation’s stature among European, Asian, and African nations will diminish. It must be remembered that India has cultivated excellent relations with Asian and African nations with its policy of non-interference and support received and extended to Arab nations. If seen from this context, India will lose its vital support among Asian nations if it supports Israel. Secondly, a war with the Chinese will be devastating for both, therefore, an anti-Israeli platform makes sense for both countries to forget old rivalries and have mutually beneficial partnerships.

European nations want to assert and retain its former glory which they had enjoyed before the two world wars. For this, they need to stop playing subservience to the U.S. If Russia gathers support with a strong anti -Israeli stance, European nations will join hands with Russia for political reasons. Unshackling from the U.S. will give them the more economic freedom to breathe.

Religious Angle

Russia has a non-religious identity. For decades together, Christian priests were treated as parasites by the Communists. And Vladimir Putin was a former dyed in the wool KGB operative, who had zero tolerance for religion and its values. For decades, the Soviet Union supported Palestinians and was not a votary of Jewish rights in Israel. The rising religious tensions in West Asia will unite Arabs against Israel and any move to question U.S. high handedness by the Russians will receive all-around support from Muslim countries across Asia and Africa.

What Will be the Trigger?

Jerusalem has come to the center-stage where media will be forced to highlight the present, past, and future of Jerusalem. The trigger will be nothing but taking advantage of Trump declaration on Jerusalem status. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already declared, “We will rebuild the walls of the city.” This threat must be taken seriously, and Netanyahu is not a pacifist; on the contrary, he came to power to assert the rights of Israel. The battle cry is very much in his DNA. It is in this context, we could see war clouds appear in West Asia.

Jawaharlal Nehru in his book, Glimpses of World History, ended the book with a question mark of another global conflagration thanks to Hitler’s annexation of Czechoslovakia after marching victoriously to Austria. Now, another set of war clouds is emerging, where the theme of the war is same for world dominion, this time not Germany but Russia.