Trainer angles have become the new speed figures in horse racing. Just as speed figures got a lot of attention and pointed out some nice winners when they were first touted, trainer angles have become popular and have revealed some good bets. Many past performances now supply them and you will find them on sheets that offer picks and tout certain horses. The only problem, of course, is that many people are now using them.
The statistics usually tell you how often a conditioner is successful at a certain move, such as dropping a horse in class, as a percentage, such as 36%. In other words, that trainer has dropped a horse in class and won 36% of the time when doing so. Along with that percentage, you’ll also find an ROI figure to tell you how much profit you would make on those bets if you’d bet every horse the trainer had dropped in class. A positive ROI seems to indicate a good bet when you find that trainer making that move today, but like many things in horse racing handicapping, that can be deceiving.
That ROI was gained before the trainer move became a well known fact and before so many people started playing it. As it was used more and more and as the numbers grew, the public jumped on those bets more and more. In fact, at the odds the horse goes off at today, it may be a lousy bet. Just seeing a positive ROI doesn’t mean you can make money betting those runners.
The truth is that almost any single trainer move that you see in a past performance is going to be bet down and becomes a bad bet with a few exceptions. One of the exceptions is when a horse looks so over matched that most bettors lay off it despite the trainer angle. An example might be a trainer who takes a horse that faded badly and adds a tongue tie to it today. Maybe with that equipment move you know the trainer has a 36% win average, but since the horse went from first to last in the stretch you figure it can’t improve that much today.
The truth of the matter however, is that it was choking on its own tongue and that is why it stopped. In this case, despite the terrible performance last out, it may still win and pay well enough to make it a profitable bet. That means the only way to make a profit on trainer angles is to bet the horses that need the most improvement that also have an angle going for them. That is one risky way to make a profit betting on horses and you’ll have many ups and downs.
