Sometimes something that seems obvious when you’re handicapping a horse race isn’t as obvious as it may appear. One example is the horse that is going from a sprint to a route race that appears to be unsuited for the distance change. The same may be true of a horse switching from a route to a sprint.
The reason(s) that a trainer is moving a horse to a difference distance has to be considered when you’re trying to evaluate the horse’s chance of winning and also whether it will actually be “sent,” for the win, as it is sometimes called. One way to determine that is to check if it has ever won at the distance before. If so, it may be in it to win it, but that is only a guess.
One problem that sometimes crops up is the horse that seems to have faded at a shorter distance. It appears to have no chance in a longer race at first look. That, however, may be untrue. Perhaps it battled fast fractions in that shorter race and burned itself out. In a longer race with softer earlier fractions it may actually hold on much longer with enough left in the tank to get the job done.
Pace is the key to how well a horse will do when switching distances and it is often overlooked. While the breeding of a runner is a big factor and cannot be overlooked its running style and pace will often dictate how well it fares in any race no matter what the distance. If it is forced to go too fast in the beginning, even in sprint, a good router will not finish well.
The best way to spot these angles is to look back at previous races the horse has raced well in and see what the pace scenario was in those races. Then compare that scenario to the projected pace of today’s race. If you find a race that suits the horse and its style, as long as it isn’t coming back from an extended layoff, then it may be fit and ready and handle the race very well.
Pace often makes a contender out of a horse that seems to have raced poorly in its last race. Whether a horse is switching from a route to a sprint or a sprint to a route, learn to look at pace as the determining factor in performance once you have ruled out breeding.
