Good long shot bets aren’t easy to find. The tote board odds on a horse are usually a pretty good reflection of that runner’s chances of winning a race. There are some variations and once in a while the crowd miscalculates, but overall their opinion of a horse is usually pretty good. If that is the case, why can’t you just bet according to the odds? The reason is the vigorish, otherwise known as the vig. The amount of money the track takes out of each pool is the reason it’s so hard to beat the races.
On the other hand, every day, at tracks all around the world, some longshots do manage to win races and a few lucky or highly skilled people cash big tickets. There is good profit in long shot horses if you happen to be good enough to find them and brave enough to bet on them. The problem is that while there is only one favorite in a race, there are often more than one longshots in a race. Sometimes there are many.
If you want to try to cash a big ticket on a longshot here are a few tips. I’ve watched many thousands of races over the decades I’ve been going to the races and here are some of the things I’ve learned. First of all, if you’re going to bet on horse races do so with your eyes open to the fact that it’s risky and you could lose everything. Secondly, longshots usually win for a reason. That means that something has happened to make them run much better than they have in recent races.
As a handicapper you should look at all the changes that are taking place in today’s race. In the typical race there are many things that are changing. For instance, time itself is a big handicapping factor. Each horse has been away from the races since its last race. While some may have raced recently and will be in good shape, others may be coming back from a layoff. Your job is to look at the amount of time each horse has been away and to make a judgment as to whether or not a horse is improving, declining, or staying about the same.
Another big change is distance. Some horses have a distance that they are more successful at and you can spot this by looking at their past races. Some horses race better on turf while others prefer dirt or synthetic surfaces. Look closely at horses switching distance or surface. While looking at all the changes compare them to the favorite. See if the favorite has a reason to lose and if so how likely it is that one of the others will beat that one.
